{"id":2421,"date":"2021-09-13T16:07:20","date_gmt":"2021-09-13T22:07:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.constellationpolitical.com\/blog\/?p=2421"},"modified":"2021-10-15T08:40:10","modified_gmt":"2021-10-15T14:40:10","slug":"2020-map-assessment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.constellationpolitical.com\/blog\/2020-map-assessment\/","title":{"rendered":"New Maps Paint Colorado Blue"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Updated 2021-10-15<\/strong> to reflect the “Final Approved” Congressional Map, and “Final Approved” State Senate and State House Maps<\/u><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Final Approved maps produced by the Colorado redistricting and reapportionment committees would result in permanent Republican minorities in all legislative bodies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n<\/i> Congress 2022 Result: 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats
\n<\/i> Congress 2030 Result: 1 Republican, 7 Democrats
\n<\/i> State Senate 2022 Result: 15<\/strike> 14 Republicans, 21 Democrats
\n<\/i> State Senate 2030 Result: 6 Republicans, 29 Democrats
\n<\/i> State House 2022 Result: 25<\/strike> 24 Republicans, 40<\/strike> 41 Democrats
\n<\/i> State House 2030 Result: 14<\/strike> 13 Republicans, 51<\/strike> 52 Democrats<\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My Methodology<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maps<\/u><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Interactive versions of the maps for Congress, State Senate, and State House can all be accessed HERE<\/a>. The checkboxes on the left allow you to control which maps are being displayed. You can easily locate districts by searching for them in the top search bar. Just type “District 7” and select the option that corresponds to the map you’re interested in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colors denote the lifetime competitiveness of a district. Purple indicates a likelihood that the district will change hands at least once in the next decade. Red or Blue indicates that the district should remain in that party’s control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Congress<\/u><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\n<\/i> 2022 Result: 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats
\n<\/i> 2030 Result: 1 Republican, 7 Democrats<\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"CO<\/a>
Table 1<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The “Final Approved Map” produced for Congressional districts represents an improvement for Republicans over the “First Staff Map.” While the end result is the same, it delays the flip in CD-4 until 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022 the most likely outcome under the “Third Staff Map” is that Republicans win three Congressional seats (3, 4, & 5) and Democrats win five. This outcome would represent the high-water mark for Republican Congressional performance over the next decade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Districts 1, 2, and 6 are clearly drawn to favor Democrats. Districts 4 and 5 are clearly drawn to favor Republicans. District 3 leans Republican and looks likely to remain so. I’ve heard that this map is supposed to include two competitive districts. My assumption is districts 7 and 8 were intended to be competitive districts. However, the starting point for these districts puts them outside the reach of a Republican candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The highest Congressional RTLA that still allowed a Republican victory under the current map was 52.1 when Mike Coffman won CD-6 in 2016. In the past decade, no other Republican candidate has come near this performance. Districts 7 and 8 are already more challenging. And that’s as of the 2020 election. By the 2022 election, these districts will be four<\/strike> six and three points, respectively, more challenging than the most challenging environment a Republican has ever prevailed in. In other words, for a Republican to win either district 7 or 8 would require an unprecedented electoral performance by that candidate<\/strong>. So ask yourself, do you think 2022 will be a better year for Republicans than 2014?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More subtly, given the current trends, both Districts 4 and 5 are poised to swing to Democrats in the long run. District 4 will cross its inflection point in 2024<\/strike> 2030 and District 5 will cross its inflection point in 2026<\/strike> 2028. This means that come 2026<\/strike> 2030 this map would most likely result in only one Republican holding Congressional office in Colorado, in CD-3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n