2020 Race Outlook: SD27
SD27 Status: Competitive.
2020 Vote Goal: 50,640
Required Unaffiliated Performance:
Current: 49.0%
Forecast: 50.3%
Required: 45.0%
Registration Goal: 5,769 new Republicans.
Fundraising Goal: $150,000.
Candidate Door Goal: 5,317.
Environment
Before July 2018 Senate District 27 was a safe Republican seat.
Since reapportionment in 2010, the registration trend in the district had been mildly negative for Republicans. However, after the 2016 Election, the existing negative trend accelerated dramatically owing to rapid growth in Unaffiliated registration coupled with an actual decline in Republican numbers. We’ve noted some of the possible drivers behind this trend in a separate note which can be read here. This has left SD27 in competitive territory and it is now on the cusp of becoming solidly Democrat by the time the 2020 Election rolls around.
To be successful in holding SD27 this deteriorating registration trend needs to be arrested. As such, any successful 2020 effort will need to include a voter registration component.
The key element in Graph 1 is the thick black ‘RTLA’ line and its grey forecast companion; this line shows the percentage of Unaffiliated voters that need to vote for the Republican in order for the Republican to get 51% of the total vote.
Right now, a Republican candidate would need just under 50% of the Unaffiliated vote to win in 2020. That result is unattainable for a typical metro-area Republican.
To hold SD27 the RTLA measure needs to be lowered to about 45% which is about the upward limit of what metro area Republicans have historically been capable of.
In order to make this race winnable, Republicans need to proactively register 5,769 new Republicans over the course of the 2020 cycle. If that registration goal can be hit, the vote goal for this seat in 2020 will be 50,640. Without registration intervention, the vote goal for this seat in 2020 will be 48,552. Note, the vote goal is higher for us in a more favorable environment because to create that environment we are adding voters to the district.
If you’re someone who wants/needs the full analysis for this race, feel free to email me and I can send over the more detailed recommendations. Ben@ConstellationPolitical.com
