New Maps Paint Colorado Blue

The third round of staff maps produced by the Colorado redistricting and reapportionment committees would result in permanent Republican minorities in all legislative bodies. But just how big a disadvantage will we be at?

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Math Errors
But that doesn’t mean it’s without value
CPR attempts election analysis. …it goes poorly.

Colorado Public Radio’s laudable attempt to substantiate a false claim in their story opens the door for a primer on common electoral analysis mistakes. Such as not using data from the district in question, using levels instead of rates for comparison, cherry-picking data to fit a pre-set narrative, confusing candidate and district performance, failing to account for differences in district geography, and ignoring Occam’s Razor.

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Politicos attempting math
Beware these stats and those using them
Slippery Stats

We all know that data is very en vogue these days, and not just in political circles. Predictably, this has led to a proliferation of squishy math, soft stats, and outright errors. So let’s go through some of the most common political math fallacies so that you too can ridicule others for making these mistakes. Because we all know public ridicule is the most effective form of instruction.

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When CO caucus attendance collapsed, one county weathered the storm
Case Study: Digital Advertising for Event Attendance

Using precisely targeted digital advertising the Gunnison County GOP was able to double caucus registration. Gunnison county ultimately had the fifth-highest caucus turnout of any county in Colorado. Their caucus turnout rate was more than twice the statewide average. All this while Colorado as a whole saw an 80% drop in caucus attendance.

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How CO Republicans Lose Before They Ever Start
The SD20 Fallacy

Every cycle legislative leadership spends well into the seven figures on our effort to capture or defend competitive legislative races. But our inability to understand which races are actually competitive has resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars of waste each cycle and mounting losses over the decade.

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Republicans win on the issues, but can’t elect candidates
Prop CC Results & After Action

The defeat of Prop CC marked another win in the recent run of success that Republicans have had with ballot issues. A further illustration of Republicans’ ability to win on the issues despite the fact that we can’t seem to get any of our candidates elected. I tend not to be very interested in ballot issues, however, our recent success has prompted me to take a look at the “No on CC” effort to see if we’re actually doing something dramatically different from the candidate side.

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